on December 22, 2012
Created: December 22, 2012
NHBC reports improving figures

The NHBC have today released statistics that demonstrate the faint glimmer of what we hope is an improving market.

One of the problems with statistics is that they can be used to demonstrate anything that you want, just by laying them out in a different way.  Now we believe that what NHBC have written today is positive, but its only by gaining perspective, and looking at other peoples views that we can tell whether this really is good news.

Earlier in this year some industry pundits were predicting that new home registrations would not exceed 100,000 in 2012, well they may be right, but with 1 month to go, we are at 99,160.  There are unlikely to be significant numbers in December, but our belief is that that statistics will break 100,000, heading roughly in the direction of 104,000.

Before we get over excited about that, in 2010 & 2011, NHBC reported 115,460 and 114,930, so we will still be 10,000 properties down on the previous two years.  2011 however presented us with a curve ball, as included in those statistics was the entire Olympic Village, which comprised of roughly 2,800 properties, so in reality across 2010 to 2012, are we really looking at 115,460, followed by 112,130, followed by a possible 100,000 to 104,000 ??

This appears to be a steady downturn, however going back one further year and we get an all time low of 88,080, preceeded in 2008 by 106,890 and 2007 by 200,700, so is this a double dip ??

We have tried to show both sides of the story here as opposed to just interpreting the numbers in one way.  It is however our belief that the market is improving.  All of the national housebuilders, almost without fail, are reporting improved footfall, improved selling prices and improved sales and profits.  These numbers throughout 2012, in conjunction with this recent set of reports from builders have to be taken as positive news.

In reality  however, only time will tell, so a Merry Christmas everyone, and lets keep working towards a great 2013 for us all.